A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Caution

Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."