Are match outcomes be misleading? It's a valid query. Villa's run of victories persisted with a win over Manchester United, but so did the nagging doubts. Statistically, they were inferior by a number of key indicators – fewer shots (12-15), less possession (43-57), a scarcity of clear opportunities (2-3). As usual, the victory was a slender one. In keeping with form, expected goals (xG) painted a different picture: reports suggest United were narrowly ahead 1.31-1.02. But, as every fan knows games are not won by xG. They are won by cohesive units, astute coaching and individual talent – and Villa have all three. The young forward may be their sole standout, but his contributions are coming with festive regularity. Unai Emery is crafty, battle-hardened, streets ahead of Ruben Amorim. If Rogers profited from a positional error, it was likely because the manager identified that Yoro is not a right-back, and instructed his winger to take up a wide position, move infield and exploit the space. Skill and strategy, in perfect harmony.
Back in October after defeating Brighton 4-2 last month, their fans felt optimism return. They secured three league games in a row for the initial occasion under Ruben Amorim. Their position climbed to fourth. And the wins were impressive victories – over Brighton (a traditionally tricky opponent), Liverpool (at Anfield!) and Sunderland (at home, versus a newly-promoted side, but still – a routine shutout). Their keeper provided stability, the attack was exciting and there was a positive mood. But then United returned to poor form. Over the next eight fixtures, two wins, six missed opportunities. In the recent fixture they were the more dominant side without ever appearing likely to triumph. Yes, their forward scored a fine effort, but he also missed a sitter. Yes, United were cursed by absentees (to key players), but they were punished for defensive errors. After 13 months in England, the coach continues to struggle with how to secure victories.
It was an 8pm kick-off on the holiday period but a noticeable shortage of fluency in the final third made for a drab affair. For Everton, the issue was predictable with creative forces absent, and Jack Grealish struggling to lift an entire team on his own. In many respects it is surprising that David Moyes’s side occupied a European spot in the table not long ago given they have played all term without a decent striker. For Arsenal and the Spanish coach, while he enjoyed a merited victory and a return to the top of the table, the flaw should be just as worrying given their title aspirations in the Premier League. He stated that positive results will inevitably grow more comfortable with dedication and persistence. But it is fairly soon in the season for a team that can start with elite players, while leaving exciting options on the bench, to be dependent on scrappy victories.
Over the festive period Pep Guardiola will monitor the scales to ensure his Manchester City players have not enjoyed excessive celebrations. He revealed his squad requested to take a day off after their 3-0 triumph but he refused because they didn’t play good enough. So they will recuperate, training for the squad players, and following a short break, then brief training for the next fixture. He explained how the side can improve. “I’m good at reading what happens in the game, where are the spaces – if the players were in the right areas, we could be more potent.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I have holidays with the family for celebrations. I'll visit Barcelona – it's a great city, the food is excellent.”
Isak's clinical effort at Tottenham felt, for a brief instant, like an arrival. This was exactly what Liverpool invested heavily for him to do, to unlock stubborn defences with his intelligent runs and finishing ability, and the assurance with which he clipped in from a neat pass looked extremely positive. So the sight of him departing immediately, following a reckless attempt, was a significant blow for the Liverpool manager and frustrating for fans who would like to see such a gifted player perform at his best again. There are fears Isak has sustained a fractured leg and he could be in for a extended spell on the sidelines. It would be a major blow with the Reds having steadily climbed towards the top four, putting together a string of positive results bookended by Isak’s maiden league strikes in their colours. Their prospects appear inextricably linked to those of their record signing.
Managers often moan about contentious refereeing decisions as a means of shifting the focus from matters they want to keep private. The significant tally Newcastle have dropped from winning positions this season appears relevant. Their manager certainly did not seem overly keen to mention that unfortunate habit following his side’s failure to protect a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they had to settle for a point in. Yet the Magpies' boss was surely justified in criticising a decision made by the on-field referee and VAR not to award his team a penalty following a blatant body check on Anthony Gordon. With the score then 2-1, a 12-yard award could have swung the momentum. Was the decision to offer the defender the leeway informed by the player's history for being skilled at earning fouls and sometimes exaggerating? Analysis from a well-known analyst was interesting. “Gordon’s waiting,” came the observation. “He knows the challenge is coming and he braces for it. I think he’s ready to go down. But the force and aggression there … it constitutes a foul.”
Brentford’s initial success on their travels this season spelled joy for their manager. Instead of reveling in the win, Andrews sympathised with Wolves, the club he joined at 16. “A large chunk of my life was here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is truly alarming; data analysts state – perhaps generously – their likelihood of the drop at 99.17%, leaving nothing to play for beyond professionalism. A senior professional brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
Elara Vance is a digital strategist with over a decade of experience in tech consulting, specializing in helping UK businesses navigate digital transformation and IT innovation.